In Alarie's decoded notebook, the next assault on the Lodge was code named "Three Thugs on a Snowmobile". Alarie had not planned a risky direct attack. Instead, his gang would drive up to the lodge in a snowmobile. Dressed in tuxedos and bearing a case of French champagne, they would invite the people in the lodge to join them outside at the lodge picnic tables. Once all the inhabitants of the Lodge were drinking champagne at picnic tables, one of the thugs would need to use the bathroom. Inside, he would find the safe, open it, steal the Music Box Book of Hours, and then return to the party and join the merry makers.
For Jack's agency, even when its method of operation was known ahead, problems with this plan were that precisely when it would occur was unknown, the behavior of thugs drinking Champagne was unpredictable, and the only onsite agent was Nicolas St. Denis. Even if -- as planned -- lodge guests would be asked to stay inside, Nicolas was unreliable when French Champagne was available. The best US cultural attaché in the Eastern Bloc would of course guard the safe, but three thugs drinking French Champagne was not a good situation.
Jack himself could not leave San Francisco until after Giselle's premiere appearance as Clara in The Nutcracker. Not only was Giselle the love of his life, but also it was her brother's soccer team for which he played.
Given that two members of Alarie's gang were escaped convicts, the best response was to arrest them while they were speeding in a road legal snowmobile or trailering the snowmobile too fast on the main road to the Lodge. Once they reached the woods that surrounded the Lodge, they probably would not be deterred by "no trespassing on private property" signs, and there were numerous ways to reach the Lodge via snowmobile.
Every snowmobile rental store in the area had been alerted; retired members of the 10th Mountain Division who lived in the area were watching access roads; and due to the Lodge's presence at the Vermont Canada border, agents from not only the FBI but also the United States Border Patrol and the Police Montée Canadienne had been alerted.
